US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Bullish on Trump’s Lead; Gold, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Outlook

Dollar Gains, Gold Falls as Trump Nears Victory in Key States

The U.S. dollar strengthened and gold prices dipped as the presidential election results showed Donald Trump closing in on a potential victory, currently leading Kamala Harris with 266 electoral votes to her 188.

The dollar’s rise was further supported by strong economic data, with the ISM Services PMI beating expectations at 56.0 (forecasted at 53.8).

Meanwhile, gold—a traditional safe-haven asset—saw selling pressure as a Trump win increases market confidence, pushing investors toward riskier assets.

With a 30-year bond auction set for 11:00 p.m. EST, further market movement is expected based on the outcome.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading higher at $104.95, up 1.45% as bullish momentum strengthens. The index has comfortably held above its pivot point at $104.63, signaling a bullish bias.

Immediate resistance lies at $105.31, with additional hurdles at $105.57 and $105.84 if the rally continues.

On the support side, $104.32 provides the first line of defense, followed by $103.95. The 50-day EMA at $103.99 and 200-day EMA at $103.72 both sit below the current price, reinforcing a supportive trend.

The bullish engulfing pattern observed recently adds to the upside momentum, suggesting further gains as long as DXY remains above $104.63.

Gold – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) dropped 1% to $2,711, breaking key levels with immediate support at $2,701 and resistance at $2,725. The 50-day EMA at $2,740 and 200-day EMA at $2,742 reinforce bearish sentiment.

A strong sell-off and bearish engulfing candle suggest further declines as long as prices stay below $2,725, with sellers maintaining control and limited signs of reversal.

Sterling Falters as UK Retail Sales Slow, Bond Yields Rise

The British pound faced mixed signals on Tuesday. The BRC Retail Sales Monitor showed a mere 0.3% year-over-year increase, missing the 1.4% forecast and down from 1.7% previously.

However, the Final Services PMI rose slightly to 52.0, beating expectations of 51.8.

Meanwhile, the 10-year bond auction saw yields climb to 4.48%, up from 4.17% in the previous auction. Looking ahead, the Construction PMI on Wednesday may further impact sentiment.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading lower at $1.28738, down 1.27% amid dollar strength. The pair is below the pivot point at $1.28917, signaling a bearish bias in the short term.

Immediate support lies at $1.28464, and a break below this could push GBP/USD toward $1.28135 and potentially $1.27792 if the selling pressure intensifies.

On the upside, resistance is at $1.29197, followed by $1.29518. However, with the 50-day EMA at $1.29620 and the 200-day EMA at $1.29975, strong overhead resistance suggests limited room for recovery unless these levels are breached.

For now, staying below $1.28917 keeps the bearish outlook intact, as the stronger dollar weighs on the pound.

Euro Weakens Amid Mixed Data, Lagarde’s Speech Looms

The euro faced mixed influences on Tuesday with French industrial production falling by -0.9%, missing expectations of -0.5%, while the government budget deficit widened to -173.8 billion euros. Spanish unemployment rose by 26.8K, slightly higher than forecast.

Looking ahead, German factory orders are expected to show a recovery with 4.2% growth, and ECB President Christine Lagarde is set to speak, potentially impacting the euro’s short-term outlook.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD is under strong selling pressure, currently down 1.67% at $1.07467. The pair has broken below the pivot point at $1.07602, reinforcing the bearish outlook, with the dollar gaining strength on election-related optimism.

Immediate support sits at $1.07130, and if this level breaks, we could see further declines toward $1.06822. On the upside, resistance at $1.07982 will need to be cleared for any bullish momentum, though the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, positioned at $1.08635 and $1.08707 respectively, suggest strong overhead resistance.

For now, as long as EUR/USD remains below $1.07602, sellers appear to have control, driven by continued dollar strength.