The Week Ahead: Markets Focus on Powell, PCE, and Geopolitical Tensions This Week

Market Overview

Markets are opening the week on edge after the U.S. launched direct strikes on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, escalating the Israel-Iran conflict and injecting fresh geopolitical risk into already fragile macro conditions. Dow futures dropped over 100 points pre-market, oil spiked more than 3%, and Bitcoin sank below $99,000 as traders positioned for potential retaliation and broader risk-off moves.

This event overrides last week’s muted index performance. The S&P 500 declined 0.15% for its second straight losing week, while the Nasdaq gained 0.21%, and the Dow inched up 0.02%.

Last week ended with pressure on chip stocks following reports that the U.S. may revoke export waivers for some semiconductor firms.

Now, focus has shifted sharply to Middle East tensions, energy prices, and whether elevated geopolitical risk accelerates inflation or forces Fed recalibration.

Key Events This Week (Economic Data + Earnings)

Monday, June 23

Earnings (Pre-Market): Commercial Metals (CMC), FactSet (FDS)

13:45 GMT: S&P Global Services and Manufacturing PMIs (June)

14:00 GMT: Existing Home Sales (May)

Earnings (After-Market): KB Home (KBH)

Tuesday, June 24

Earnings (Pre-Market): Carnival (CCL), TD Synnex (SNX)

13:00 GMT: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (April)

14:00 GMT: Consumer Confidence (June)

14:00 GMT: Fed Chair Powell testifies before House Financial Services Committee

Earnings (After-Market): FedEx (FDX) – EPS $5.85, Revenue $21.8B. Watch tariff-related volume and DRIVE plan updates. Also: AeroVironment (AVAV), BlackBerry (BB), Worthington Enterprises (WOR)

Wednesday, June 25

Earnings (Pre-Market): General Mills (GIS), Paychex (PAYX), Winnebago (WGO)

14:00 GMT: New Home Sales (May)

14:00 GMT: Fed Chair Powell testifies before Senate Banking Committee

Earnings (After-Market): Micron (MU) – EPS $1.59, Revenue $8.8B. Focus on AI server demand and memory pricing. Also: H.B. Fuller (FUL), Jefferies (JEF), MillerKnoll (MLKN), Steelcase (SCS), Worthington Steel (WS)

Thursday, June 26

Earnings (Pre-Market): Acuity (AYI), Lindsay (LNN), McCormick (MKC), Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)

12:30 GMT: Jobless Claims (week ending June 21), GDP (Q1 final), Durable Goods Orders (May), Wholesale Inventories (May prelim)

14:00 GMT: Pending Home Sales (May)

Earnings (After-Market): Nike (NKE) – EPS $0.12, Revenue $10.7B. Traders watching China exposure, brand demand, and margins. Also: Concentrix (CNXC)

Friday, June 27

Earnings (Pre-Market): Apogee Enterprises (APOG)

12:30 GMT: PCE & Core PCE (May) – Expected +2.3% and +2.6% YoY, respectively

12:30 GMT: Personal Income & Spending (May)

14:00 GMT: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (revised, June)

Central Bank Activity

Powell’s testimony Tuesday and Wednesday will dominate attention, as markets seek clarity on the Fed’s reaction function after recent inflation stickiness and geopolitical escalation.

Additional Fed commentary will come from Waller, Bowman, Cook, Hammack, Barr, Kugler, and Williams throughout the week.

The policy message remains data-dependent, with the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections still pointing to two rate cuts in 2025.

Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 closed at 5,967.84, trading above its 52-week simple moving average of 5,757.17. Key resistance is marked at the recent high of 6,147.43, with visible support at 5,491.25.

The Nasdaq Composite ended the week at 19,447.41, also holding above its 52-week SMA of 18,424.29. Resistance stands at 20,204.58, and the most recent swing low support is 14,784.03.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42,206.83, sitting just above its 52-week SMA of 42,055.29. Resistance is defined at 45,073.63, while key support is seen at 36,611.78.

All three major indexes are above their 52-week trend levels, but consolidation below their respective highs signals hesitation. A move above resistance or a break back below the 52-week SMA will define next direction.

Commodities, Crypto, and Bonds

WTI crude surged to $77/bbl after the U.S. strikes, as traders priced in higher odds of retaliation or supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold underperformed despite risk, weighed down by dollar strength.

Bitcoin sold off sharply to below $99,000, triggering over $1B in liquidations, mostly from long positions. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose modestly, with inflation risk and geopolitical premiums lifting rates across the curve.

Weekly Outlook

Geopolitical risk is now the top concern, with oil, bonds, and crypto reflecting heightened global tensions. Powell’s testimony and Friday’s inflation data will clarify the Fed’s posture, but traders are primarily focused on Middle East fallout and any spillover into supply chains or inflation.

Earnings from FedEx, Micron, and Nike will offer sector-level insights but are likely to play second fiddle to broader macro drivers. Expect elevated volatility and defensiveness as the week progresses.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.