The Day Ahead: What Markets Face Today as Powell, PMI Data, and Trade Risks Take Focus

Markets Stumble as Trade War Risks Reignite

U.S. equity futures are under pressure early Monday as U.S.-China trade tensions flare. S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, and Dow Jones futures are all in the red—down 0.53%, 0.68%, and 0.41%, respectively—after China pushed back against U.S. accusations of trade violations, signaling a deeper rift ahead of potential high-level talks.

Despite a powerful May—S&P +6.15%, Nasdaq +9.56%, Dow +3.94%—market momentum is at risk. Traders are wary that the rally priced in best-case tariff outcomes. Morgan Stanley’s Chris Toomey warns the market could stay range-bound as rising levies and global policy uncertainty cap upside.

What to Watch: Monday’s High-Impact Economic Data

• 13:45 GMT – S&P Global Final Manufacturing PMI (May): expected 51.4, previous 51.3
• 14:00 GMT – ISM Manufacturing PMI (May): expected 49.8, previous 49.2
• 14:00 GMT – Construction Spending MoM (April): expected +0.2%, previous +0.2%

Today’s ISM report is especially important. A reading below 50 signals contraction in the manufacturing sector, which is already facing cost pressure from tariffs. A weaker-than-expected print could push Fed cut expectations forward.

Fed Watch: Powell Headlines a Busy Speaker Lineup

Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at 17:00 GMT. His remarks come amid elevated inflation uncertainty and cooling consumer activity. While April’s PCE came in at 2.1%, businesses may pass rising import costs to consumers, muddying the inflation path.

Other Fed appearances today:
• 14:15 GMT – Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan
• 16:45 GMT – Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

The market is pricing in a potential rate cut by September, but officials have remained cautious. Any shift in tone could be a catalyst.

Earnings in Focus: Names to Watch Pre- and Post-Market

Before the bell:
• Campbell Soup (CPB) – EPS est. $0.65. Focus: cost inflation, pricing power
• Science Applications (SAIC) – EPS est. $2.13. Focus: federal spending outlook

After the bell:
• Credo Technology (CRDO) – EPS est. $0.27. Focus: China exposure, forward guidance

Technical Check: Indexes Stall Near Critical Levels

S&P 500 futures: hovering under 5,895 (200-day SMA). Resistance: 6,008.00. Support: 5,756.50.

Nasdaq-100 futures: range-bound between 21,858.75 (resistance) and 20,727.00 (support). In position to challenge the 200-day moving average at 20,810.65.

Dow futures: capped under the 200-day moving average at 43,113. Key support: the 50-day moving average at 41,238.

Trading Outlook: Headline-Driven Risk Day

With Fed officials on deck, critical economic data at the open, and U.S.-China rhetoric deteriorating, risk assets face headline sensitivity. Traders should prepare for volatility spikes around PMI prints and Powell’s speech. The Fed remains in “wait-and-see” mode, but tariff effects are increasingly front and center. A weak ISM or dovish shift could trigger repricing of September cut odds.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.