Market Overview
U.S. stock futures are flat ahead of the Fed’s rate decision, with S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones futures all hovering near unchanged. Tuesday’s session saw broad weakness, led by declines in tech and healthcare. Apple dragged the S&P 500, while energy was the only sector to close green, gaining 1.03% on geopolitical tension.
Apple was the S&P’s biggest drag (-0.48 pts), Chevron its top gainer (+0.06 pts). In the Dow, Amgen (-34 pts) and Chevron (+17 pts) were key movers. On the Nasdaq, Tesla (-24 pts) weighed, offset partly by CrowdStrike (+4 pts).
Key Economic Releases
12:30 GMT
• Unemployment Claims: 248K est. (prev 248K)
• Building Permits: 1.42M est. (prev 1.41M)
• Housing Starts: 1.35M est. (prev 1.36M)
These releases will shape views on labor and housing but take a backseat to the Fed.
Central Bank Activity
The FOMC announces its rate decision at 18:00 GMT, with no change expected (target range: 4.25%–4.50%). Fed funds futures price in a 99.9% hold. Powell’s press conference begins at 18:30 GMT.
Focus will be on the updated dot plot. Any shift from two to one projected cut this year would tilt hawkish, especially with ongoing tariff and inflation uncertainty.
Notable Earnings
Before the Bell
• GMS (GMS): $1.11 est. – building supply bellwether
• Korn/Ferry (KFY): $1.26 est. – labor market read-through
After the Close
• Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI): $0.23 est. – tied to defense and consumer sentiment
Commodities, Crypto, and Bonds
Yields are steady. The 10-year trades at 4.375% (-1.6 bps), 2-year at 3.943% (-0.7 bps). Bond markets are closed tomorrow for Juneteenth.
Technical Outlook
S&P 500 Index futures remain capped below 6127.00. Support sits at 5959.98 (200-day SMA), with the 50-day near 5787.1.
Nasdaq 100 futures consolidate under 22322.50, holding above 21113.06 (200-day).
Dow Jones futures are boxed between 41552 and 43516, with 41784.8 (50-day SMA) as key support.
Outlook
Today’s action hinges on the Fed. While a pause is priced in, changes to the dot plot and Powell’s tone will guide the market. Sector rotation and geopolitical pressure remain secondary but live risk factors. Expect volatility into the close.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
