Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: XAU Holds $3,373, XAG Eyes $36.88 Upside

Market Overview

Gold prices hovered near $3,400 during the Asian session on Tuesday, rebounding from an early dip as expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts in late 2025 pressured the U.S. dollar. The metal’s gains were modest but notable, with XAU/USD trading around $3,387 by midday in Asia.

Market participants are now pricing in at least two rate cuts by year-end, with a potential first move in September. The weakening dollar, which typically has an inverse relationship with gold, continues to underpin bullion demand. “With inflation slowing and global trade uncertainty persisting, the Fed may have little choice but to pivot dovish,” said a senior macro strategist at Tokyo-based Mitsui Global.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins its two-day policy meeting today, with a decision expected Wednesday. While no immediate policy changes are anticipated, traders are keenly focused on Chair Jerome Powell’s forward guidance, especially in light of tariff-related inflation risks.

Geopolitical Uncertainty Boosts Safe-Haven Flows

Increased tensions in the Middle East, particularly following strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and concerns over energy infrastructure, have revived safe-haven flows into gold and silver. Though the situation remains fluid, the proximity of these developments to vital shipping lanes has stoked investor caution.

On Monday, three oil tankers reportedly caught fire in the Gulf of Oman. While investigations are ongoing, the incident drew parallels to the 2019 tanker attacks and triggered risk aversion across Asian equity markets. Gold, long considered a geopolitical hedge, responded accordingly.

Silver (XAG/USD), meanwhile, mirrored gold’s strength, rising toward $36.50. The metal briefly touched $36.4955 before stabilizing.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold holds above $3,373 trendline support as bulls eye $3,404. Silver consolidates near $36.64, with breakout potential toward $36.88 if $36.12 support holds. Momentum remains neutral.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is hovering near $3,387 after slipping 0.21% on the day, testing both trendline support and the 50-period EMA at $3,392. The current pullback follows a failed push above $3,428, which triggered a cascade of lower highs.

However, price continues to respect the rising trendline from June 10, signaling buyers are still defending structure. A firm hold above $3,373 keeps the bullish bias intact. If bulls reclaim $3,404, a move toward $3,428 could resume.

Momentum is neutral, with MACD flattening and no clear breakout candles. A drop below $3,373 would threaten the trendline and expose $3,338 as the next downside target.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is consolidating just below $36.64, up 0.09% on the day, showing strength after repeatedly holding the $36.12 support zone. Price action remains squeezed in a narrow range, forming a potential ascending triangle a structure that often precedes bullish continuation.

The 50-period EMA at $36.28 is acting as a dynamic floor, while higher lows signal building pressure. A breakout above $36.64 could clear the path toward $36.88 and $37.19.

However, if silver fails to break out and closes below $36.12, a pullback to $35.83 could follow. Momentum is stable, but buyers need to follow through to confirm upside direction.