Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Uncertainty and NFP Set Direction

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) hovered near $3,352 during the early Tuesday session in Asia, showing resilience after a brief dip. The yellow metal held above the $3,346 support level, while Silver (XAG/USD) consolidated around $34.79, with both markets showing caution ahead of key U.S. economic releases and the ongoing policy debate within the Federal Reserve.

Expectations of monetary easing continue to underpin the metals complex. Fed funds futures indicate a nearly 70% chance of at least two rate cuts by year-end, as softening inflation and a projected $1.9 trillion U.S. deficit in 2025 drive risk hedging flows. The U.S. 10-year yield slipped to 4.31%, reflecting market confidence in a dovish Fed pivot.

“The market’s focus has shifted from inflation fear to growth fragility,” noted Thomas Bucher, strategist at DWS. “That’s supportive for metals with defensive characteristics like gold.”

Labor Market Strength and Mixed Fed Rhetoric Shape Outlook

The latest JOLTS data showed 7.39 million job openings in April, beating the 7.34 million estimate. While this suggests labor market resilience, falling bond yields and a softer dollar indicate traders remain focused on Fed easing.

Fed officials remain divided. Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic argued for caution, while Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee cited delayed inflation effects from tariffs. Governor Lisa Cook raised concerns over stagflation, warning that persistent trade disruptions could hinder growth while driving up prices.

These diverging viewpoints have injected uncertainty into markets, limiting directional conviction in gold or silver.

Focus Turns to NFP Report and Services PMI for Confirmation

Upcoming economic indicators, including Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls and the ISM Services PMI, are likely to impact short-term demand for the dollar and shape the momentum of precious metals.

However, Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report remains the decisive catalyst. A strong reading may delay easing expectations, while a miss could fast-track rate cuts, supporting further gains in gold and silver.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold and silver remain supported by dovish Fed bets and resilient technical levels. Key U.S. data this week could trigger breakout moves, with $3,364 and $34.79 acting as near-term resistance.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is showing resilience near $3,352, rebounding from the key support zone around the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $3,346. This level also aligns with the 50-hour EMA, reinforcing it as a critical technical floor. Price continues to respect the rising trendline from the May 30 low near $3,271, maintaining a broader bullish structure.

The recent dip toward $3,346 was met with renewed buying interest, indicating buyers are still in control unless this level breaks decisively.

A strong hourly close above $3,364 (23.6% Fib retracement) would confirm bullish continuation, exposing the recent swing high at $3,392 and potentially the $3,417 resistance zone beyond it. On the downside, a break below $3,346 would shift focus toward $3,332 and $3,318, both significant Fibonacci levels.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is consolidating just beneath the $34.79 swing high, with price currently testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $34.31. The recent surge from $32.77 has lost steam, and price action now shows signs of hesitation near the upper boundary of the breakout zone.

Despite the pause, the structure remains bullish above $34.02 (38.2% Fib). The 50-period EMA at $33.90 continues to offer dynamic support, reinforcing buyers’ control in the near term. A daily close above $34.79 would likely trigger a fresh leg toward $35.03 and potentially $35.24.

However, failure to hold above $34.02 could suggest a deeper pullback toward $33.78 or even $33.54, key retracement zones that align with prior resistance-turned-support levels.