Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Bulls Target $3,429 and $37.33 on CPI and Fed Bets

Market Overview

Gold prices advanced for a second consecutive session during Thursday’s Asian trading hours, with spot XAU/USD reaching a one-week high near $3,377. The rally was supported by a combination of weakening U.S. inflation data, rising geopolitical tensions, and renewed trade uncertainty, driving investors toward safe-haven assets.

Silver prices also benefited, climbing to $36.42. The move was reinforced by a weaker U.S. Dollar and falling Treasury yields, adding to silver’s appeal as both a defensive and industrial asset.

Trump’s Tariff Threats and Geopolitical Risks Support Bullion

Market sentiment shifted after former President Donald Trump announced plans to impose unilateral tariffs and notify global trade partners within two weeks. This renewed policy risk undermined recent optimism following productive U.S.-China trade talks.

Simultaneously, geopolitical tensions escalated. The U.S. allowed voluntary evacuation of military families from the Middle East and scaled back diplomatic staffing in Baghdad amid rising regional threats.

Iran’s defense ministry issued retaliatory warnings, while Russia intensified drone strikes on Ukraine, particularly targeting Kharkiv. These events have contributed to the demand for defensive assets, such as gold.

Weak U.S. CPI Strengthens Fed Rate Cut Expectations

Gold also drew support from May’s softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index data. Headline CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, slightly below the 2.5% forecast, while core CPI held at 2.8%. This reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts by September.

Treasury yields dipped in response, dragging the U.S. Dollar to a one-month low and improving the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as gold. Futures pricing via the CME FedWatch Tool now indicates a 70% probability of a September rate cut.

Outlook: Gold Bullish Ahead of PPI and Jobs Data

Investors now turn to Thursday’s U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and initial jobless claims for further clarity on the Fed’s rate path.

However, with global uncertainty, a dovish Fed outlook, and a weaker dollar backdrop, the path of least resistance for both gold and silver remains to the upside.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold eyes a breakout above $3,375 as safe-haven demand rises, while silver holds firm above trendline support with targets at $36.87 and $37.33.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold has surged past the $3,348 resistance and is now testing $3,375, a key level that previously capped upward momentum. Price action has broken out from a bullish ascending triangle and is trading above both the 50 EMA ($3,341.87) and 200 EMA ($3,324.92), confirming a strong technical structure.

Momentum remains bullish, supported by higher lows and expanding candles. If buyers clear $3,375 with conviction, the next upside targets lie at $3,404 and $3,429. On the downside, immediate support is now seen at $3,348, followed by the EMA confluence around $3,325.

As long as gold holds above trendline and EMA support, the bias remains firmly bullish with potential for further gains.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is attempting a bounce after holding above the ascending trendline and the 50 EMA, currently trading near $36.42. The $36.11–$36.20 zone has acted as strong support, with buyers stepping in to defend the bullish structure.

Price remains well above the 200 EMA ($34.69), confirming broader trend strength. If momentum continues, the next hurdle lies at $36.87, followed by $37.33. A close above these levels would re-establish bullish dominance.

However, failure to hold above the trendline could send the price back toward $35.88 or even $35.29. As long as silver holds the trendline and 50 EMA support, the outlook remains constructive with upside potential.